A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
